La Nina: Normal Monsoon

Why in News? The private weather agency Skymet Weather has forecasted a “normal” monsoon for the upcoming season, with rainfall estimated to be 3% above the long-term average of 868.6 mm. The weakening of La Niña conditions is a key factor behind this prediction.

Key Points of the News:

1. Monsoon Forecast:

   • Rainfall expected to be 3% more than the long-term average (868.6 mm).

   • Classified as “normal” if within 4% of the long-term average.

   • June is predicted to have 4% below-normal rainfall.

   • July and August, the peak monsoon months, may see rainfall 2% and 8% more than average.

2. Impact of La Niña and El Niño:

   • La Niña, a phenomenon characterized by the cooling of the central Pacific, is weakening.

   • El Niño conditions, associated with reduced monsoon rainfall, are starting to develop.

   • Skymet anticipates better rainfall in the second half of the monsoon due to these shifting phenomena.

3. Regional Rainfall Variations:

   • Excess rainfall likely along the Western Ghats, Kerala, coastal Karnataka, and Goa.

   • Northeastern and hilly northern states may receive less-than-normal rainfall.

4. Agricultural Implications:

   • Adequate rainfall in western and southern India will likely support crop growth.

   • Key regions like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are expected to receive sufficient rainfall for agriculture.

What is La Niña?

La Niña is a climate pattern that refers to the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. It is part of the larger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and typically leads to:

• Enhanced monsoon rainfall in India.

• Cooler global temperatures.

• Increased cyclonic activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

Recent Example of La Niña:

• 2020-2023: A rare triple-dip La Niña (lasting for three consecutive years) was observed, significantly influencing global weather patterns, including above-normal monsoons in India during these years.