India’s Prospective Security Challenges in 2024: Learning from Global Events

Introduction:

• The dynamic landscape of global security demands proactive anticipation and preparation for unforeseen challenges. Drawing insights from recent conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and the Hamas-Israel clash, this article explores potential security exigencies India might encounter in 2024.

Anticipating Nuclear Dynamics:

• The unexpected Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shattered assumptions about major nations avoiding wars over territory. This event highlighted the possibility of nuclear-armed states engaging in conventional warfare. Drawing parallels, India’s experience with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Galwan raises questions about the restraint of major powers like Beijing in 2024.

Non-State Actors and Unconventional Tactics:

• The 2023 Hamas terror attack and subsequent Israeli reprisal underscored the military prowess of non-state entities. The innovative use of technology, such as drones, demonstrated the evolving nature of security threats. India, affected by similar attacks near its west coast, faces the challenge of countering non-state actors leveraging low-cost, high-impact strategies.

Global Implications of Non-State Entities:

• The Houthi rebel group’s assault on merchant shipping with Israeli ties in Yemen showcased the disruptive potential of non-state actors on global shipping and supply chains. The U.S.’s response, forming a naval task force, reveals the intricate geopolitical ramifications. India’s stern warnings to perpetrators highlight the need for strategic preparedness in the face of evolving unconventional threats.

Historical Context and India’s Security Landscape:

• Reflecting on historical events like the 1962 border war, Kargil in 1999, and the Galwan incident in 2020, India has grappled with surprise attacks, exposing gaps in actionable intelligence and strategic planning. As India approaches 2024, a complex array of external and internal security challenges, including China-Pakistan cooperation and regional insurgencies, demands a robust response.

Institutional Changes and Military Preparedness:

• India’s military faces institutional shifts with the introduction of theatre commands and changes in recruitment patterns. Appointing a retired three-star officer as the second Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) has stirred debates about the apolitical nature of the armed forces. The Agniveer scheme’s impact on combat efficiency, especially in Gorkha regiments, raises concerns about the long-term efficacy of the army.

The Challenge of Strategic Planning in 2024:

• Security planners worldwide grapple with interpreting the events of 2023 and making informed decisions about conventional platform acquisitions. As AI and related technologies gradually enter the battlefield, considerations extend beyond traditional conflicts to opaque non-state entities, involving market forces and corporate power brokers.

Conclusion:

• As India navigates the intricate web of potential security challenges in 2024, the adaptability and foresight of the government and higher defense management will be crucial. Learning from global events, understanding the rhymes of history, and anticipating emerging threats will determine India’s success in safeguarding its national security.