India’s Evolving Role in the New Great Game: Analyzing the Impact of Iran-Pakistan Strikes

Introduction:
• The recent missile strikes between Iran and Pakistan, coupled with attacks on Indian shipping in the Red Sea, have thrust India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan into a deeper involvement in the complex dynamics of the Middle East. C. Raja Mohan identifies five key trends in security interdependence that underscore the interconnected insecurities of the Subcontinent and the Gulf.
Baloch Minority Tragedy: Fragility of Pakistan’s Western Borderlands
• The attacks by Tehran and Rawalpindi on the Baloch minorities highlight the vulnerability of Pakistan’s western borderlands. Dissident Baloch groups, with grievances against both Pakistan and Iran, add to the security dilemmas faced by both nations. The cross-border nature of the conflict draws attention to the fragility of the region.
Regional Power Politics and Dissident Groups
• Beyond bilateral tensions, dissident groups become pawns in the larger regional power play involving Arabs, Israelis, and Iranians. The ungoverned spaces in Baloch lands provide fertile ground for smuggling and political militancy, backed by external actors. Accusations of India meddling in Baloch affairs further complicate the regional dynamics.
Geopolitical Significance of Balochistan: The New Great Game
• Balochistan’s strategic location at the mouth of the oil-rich Gulf elevates its role in the new great game. Pakistan’s challenges in managing unrest in Balochistan are exacerbated by Beijing’s strategic presence in Gwadar, a critical node in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The deepening rivalry between the U.S. and China adds a layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape.
Afghanistan’s Role and the Growing Influence of the Taliban
• Afghanistan, with historical issues with Iran, becomes a key player. The Taliban government in Kabul, assertive in its dealings with Pakistan, might exploit the opportunity to extend influence in the Gulf. This further complicates the security calculus for India, already concerned about the fragile Baloch frontier connecting South Asia and the Gulf.
India’s Shifting Stance and Stakes in the Middle East
• As the Middle East becomes more volatile, India’s traditionally neutral stance is challenged. Economic and security stakes rise, with attacks on shipping threatening commercial lifelines. India’s response includes deploying warships, aligning with global partners against terrorism, strengthening ties with Israel, and deepening engagement with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Conclusion:
• The cross-border strikes between Iran and Pakistan signify a changing region that demands a reevaluation of India’s assumptions about Middle East security. As India’s economic and security interests grow, navigating the intricate web of regional conflicts becomes imperative, challenging traditional diplomatic norms.