India Meteorological Department’s (IMD)

Why  in the news? The news discusses the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast for the upcoming southwest monsoon season in India, specifically its ruling out the possibility of an El Nino. This is significant because El Nino conditions are typically associated with reduced monsoon rainfall in India, which can have serious implications for agriculture and water resources.

Key Points of the News:

1. El Nino Forecast: The IMD has ruled out the possibility of an El Nino for the 2025 southwest monsoon season. This is based on climate forecasts, including international ones.

2. Impact of El Nino: El Nino is typically linked to a warming of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and is associated with reduced monsoon rainfall in India. In 2023, during an El Nino year, the monsoon saw a 6% deficit in rainfall.

3. Neutral Conditions Expected: The IMD expects “neutral El Nino conditions” for this year, meaning there will be no significant temperature rise in the Central Pacific (0.5°C to 1°C), which is often linked to El Nino.

4. Past Instances of Below-Normal Rainfall: While neutral conditions generally suggest normal rainfall, there have been instances in the past where neutral conditions have led to below-normal rainfall in India.

5. Heatwave Predictions: Before the monsoon, India is expected to experience “above-normal” temperatures during the summer months (April to June). The country could report four to seven heatwave days on average, with parts of eastern India potentially seeing up to 10 heatwave days.

6. Global Warming Concerns: The rise in temperatures in parts of central and southern India in March 2025 is being attributed to global warming, which is affecting local climate patterns.

7. Monsoon Forecast to Be Released in April: The IMD will release its first detailed forecast for the 2025 monsoon in April, which will provide more clarity on expected rainfall patterns.

This information is crucial for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness in India, given the country’s dependence on the monsoon for water and crop production.

India Meteorological Department (IMD)

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the national meteorological organization of India, responsible for providing weather, climate, and hydrological services. It is an important government agency under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India.

Key Functions of IMD:

1. Weather Forecasting:

   • IMD provides daily weather forecasts, including temperature, rainfall, and storm predictions, for various regions in India. It also provides specific forecasts for sectors like agriculture, aviation, shipping, and defense.

   • It issues warnings for severe weather events like cyclones, heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and floods.

2. Monsoon Forecasting:

   • The IMD plays a crucial role in forecasting the southwest monsoon, which is vital for India’s agriculture. It issues seasonal rainfall forecasts and tracks the onset and withdrawal of the monsoon.

   • The department also provides forecasts for the summer monsoon and its impact on various regions.

3. Cyclone Warning:

   • IMD tracks tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean and issues warnings to mitigate their effects on coastal and inland areas. It operates a specialized division, the Cyclone Warning Division, which is responsible for tracking and forecasting cyclones.

4. Climate Studies:

   • IMD monitors long-term climate trends and conducts studies related to climate change. It provides data on the Indian climate system, including temperature, rainfall patterns, and long-term climatic variability.

5. Seismology:

   • The IMD also provides earthquake-related services, including real-time earthquake monitoring. It maintains seismic stations across the country and issues alerts about potential earthquakes.