India-Maldives Relations: History, Recent Issues, Challenges, and Way Forward

India and the Maldives share a long history of cultural, economic, and political ties, underpinned by geographical proximity and mutual security concerns. The bilateral relationship has evolved into a strategic partnership, with cooperation in areas like trade, tourism, defense, and development.

1. Early Ties: Diplomatic relations between India and the Maldives were formally established in 1965, soon after the Maldives gained independence from British rule. India was one of the first countries to recognize the Maldives as a sovereign nation.
2. 1988 Operation Cactus: A key moment in the relationship occurred when India, under Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, launched Operation Cactus in response to a coup attempt in the Maldives. Indian military forces successfully intervened, restoring the government of then-President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. This cemented India’s role as a security guarantor for the Maldives.
3. Economic and Development Cooperation: Over the years, India has been a significant development partner for the Maldives, providing grants, concessional lines of credit, and aid for various infrastructure, healthcare, and education projects. Tourism and trade between the two nations also grew, with many Maldivians studying in Indian universities and Indian tourists contributing to Maldives’ tourism sector.
4. Defense Cooperation: The strategic location of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean has made defense cooperation a cornerstone of bilateral relations. India has provided training and assistance to the Maldivian security forces and helps in maritime security through joint patrols and intelligence sharing.

Recent Issues and Challenges

1. Political Instability in the Maldives:
   • The political landscape in the Maldives has been volatile in recent years, impacting relations with India. The tenure of former President Abdulla Yameen (2013-2018) saw a tilt towards China, with increased Chinese investments in the form of loans under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This raised concerns in New Delhi about Chinese influence in its neighborhood.
   • Yameen’s “India Out” campaign, which opposed India’s military presence in the Maldives, strained relations between the two countries. His pro-China stance led to concerns that Chinese debt was leading to “debt trap” diplomacy, a strategy allegedly used by Beijing to increase its geopolitical influence.
2. Growing Chinese Influence:
   • Chinese investment in the Maldives has grown significantly, especially in infrastructure projects like the construction of the China-Maldives Friendship Bridge and other large-scale developments. China’s presence in the Maldives has caused geopolitical concerns for India, given that the Maldives is situated near vital shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean.
   • The risk of China’s debt-trap diplomacy has emerged as a significant issue. The Maldives owes a substantial portion of its national debt to Chinese creditors, creating fears of economic dependence on Beijing.
3. Environmental Challenges:
   • Climate change is a shared concern, as rising sea levels threaten the Maldives’ very existence. India and the Maldives have cooperated on climate-related initiatives, but addressing this issue remains a challenge. India’s leadership in global climate forums offers an opportunity to strengthen this aspect of bilateral cooperation.
4. COVID-19 Pandemic:
   • The pandemic tested the resilience of India-Maldives relations. India extended medical aid to the Maldives, supplying vaccines under the Vaccine Maitri initiative and providing financial assistance to mitigate the pandemic’s economic impact.
5. Internal Political Dynamics:
   • Political developments in the Maldives, such as leadership changes and power struggles between pro-India and pro-China factions, have posed challenges to the continuity of bilateral relations. These internal dynamics can impact foreign policy stances toward India.

Recent Developments in Bilateral Relations

1. Post-2018 Relations under Ibrahim Solih:
   • The election of President Ibrahim Solih in 2018 marked a significant improvement in India-Maldives relations. Solih’s government shifted foreign policy back towards India, reaffirming the “India First” policy and committing to reducing Chinese debt.
   • India has extended economic support, including a $500 million line of credit for infrastructure projects, particularly for the development of the Greater Male Connectivity Project (GMCP). This project is expected to enhance connectivity between Male and nearby islands.
2. Defense Cooperation:
   • India has provided surveillance aircraft and helicopters to the Maldives for maritime security, as well as training for Maldivian security forces. The India-Maldives Coast Guard joint patrols ensure security in the Indian Ocean, protecting the region from threats like terrorism and piracy.
   • The Uthuru Thila Falhu (UTF) harbor project, being developed with Indian assistance, has drawn some criticism from domestic opposition parties in the Maldives, but it remains a strategic priority for both nations to secure the region’s maritime interests.
3. Economic Support and Development Assistance:
   • India has provided financial aid and credit lines to help Maldives recover from the economic impacts of COVID-19. Projects related to water supply, sanitation, and infrastructure have been prioritized.
   • India’s efforts to support the Maldives’ tourism sector, a critical component of its economy, have been significant, especially in the pandemic recovery phase.

Challenges Ahead

1. Geopolitical Rivalry with China:
   • The balancing act between India and China remains a challenge. While the Solih administration has leaned towards India, China’s economic footprint in the Maldives remains significant. Any shift in domestic politics in the Maldives could reignite concerns of growing Chinese influence.
2. Domestic Opposition to Indian Involvement:
   • Opposition parties in the Maldives, particularly those aligned with Abdulla Yameen, continue to push the “India Out” narrative, which opposes perceived Indian military presence and influence. This domestic political opposition could hinder further cooperation.
3. Debt Sustainability:
   • The Maldives’ rising external debt, particularly to China, poses long-term economic risks. While India has provided financial aid and assistance, the overall debt burden could challenge the Maldives’ ability to maintain balanced relations with both India and China.

Way Forward

1. Strengthening Economic Cooperation:
   • India should continue to provide financial and technical assistance for development projects in the Maldives. Enhancing trade ties and exploring avenues for Indian investment in tourism, healthcare, and renewable energy will help solidify economic relations.
2. Enhanced Defense Cooperation:
   • Joint maritime security operations and intelligence sharing should be deepened to secure the Indian Ocean region. Ensuring that defense cooperation is transparent and responsive to domestic concerns in the Maldives will be crucial to maintaining long-term stability.
3. People-to-People Ties:
   • Expanding educational, cultural, and tourism exchanges can further strengthen the foundation of the bilateral relationship. India can also continue to provide scholarships and training programs for Maldivian students and professionals.
4. Sustainable Development and Climate Action:
   • India can take the lead in helping the Maldives combat climate change by offering technical support in renewable energy projects and coastal protection initiatives. Collaborative efforts at international climate forums can also enhance this cooperation.
5. Strategic Balance:
   • India must continue to engage with all factions in Maldivian politics to ensure that the relationship remains strong, irrespective of domestic political changes. Navigating geopolitical dynamics in the region, particularly with China, will require diplomatic finesse.